Taking a Short Break (2024 election predictions)
After wrestling with Neil Howe’s book The Fourth Turning Is Here for more than a month (first post here) I’m going to take a break to deal with some family matters. In the absence of time-consuming analysis, here are some predictions about the 2024 U.S. elections based on Joe Biden and Donald Trump being the presumptive nominees of the two factions of the legacy party duopoly.
If one of Donald Trump or Joe Biden is replaced on the ticket before election day while the other stays in place, then the replacement candidate will win. I see this as the most likely scenario because of the large number of ways it could happen, although each specific scenario has a low probability.
If Joe Biden and Donald Trump are nominated for president by their respective factions of the legacy party duopoly and remain at the top of the tickets until election day, and if a third major candidate gains serious traction before election day (specifically the third candidate is on the ballot in at least 45 states including all states with 9 or more electoral votes and is polling at least 25% on September 1), then the third candidate will win.
If Donald Trump and Joe Biden are nominated for president by their respective factions of the legacy party duopoly, and if they remain at the top of their tickets until election day with no third candidate gaining serious traction, then Donald Trump will win.
If both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are replaced before election day then I have no idea who will win.
These predictions are based on my sense that the vast majority of Americans have had enough of both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and have had enough of the system that repeatedly delivers no acceptable alternatives. If Joe Biden and Donald Trump are the only choices, Americans will choose the candidate who they perceive as likely to do more damage to the establishment. Based on how much the establishment hates Donald Trump, he will get the nod.
To be clear about my own position, I will not vote for either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. They are both disqualified as war criminals and enablers of genocide, as are just about all of the members of Congress and the American foreign policy and defense establishment. So in that sense, I am not likely to have a dog in the fight.
We shall see.