Book Review Part 1: The Fourth Turning Is Here
Introduction
December 3, 2023
I began writing this book review for publication elsewhere, but the post became too long and went in too many different directions. One of the reasons I started this Substack was so I could finish the review in a series of posts instead of attempting to integrate it all into one.
Are you wondering why everything sucks and keeps getting worse? That’s the way it’s supposed to be right now according to Neil Howe, at least for those of us living in the United States.
Howe’s new book is called The Fourth Turning Is Here (Simon & Schuster July 2023). Howe is the surviving member of the authorial team of Strauss & Howe, who achieved notoriety in the 1980s and 90s writing about the differing world-views of succeeding generations of Americans (Greatest Generation, Silent Generation, Baby Boomers, etc.). Howe turned this into something of a cottage industry, writing multiple books and doing lots of consulting. He claims to have originated (with William Strauss) the term “millennials” as a name for the generation of young people coming up around the turn of the millennium, after Generation X.
Aside from naming demographic generations, Strauss and Howe also argued that history (at least in relatively modern countries) moves in cycles lasting roughly 80 to 100 years.1 Each cycle is divided into four periods called “turnings,” metaphorically corresponding to the four seasons. The fourth turning (where we are now) corresponds to winter, and is a period of crisis usually involving lots of bloodshed. The last four such crisis periods roughly corresponded to the French and Indian War, the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and the Great Depression/Second World War.
A first turning corresponds to spring and is a period of renewed social consensus arising from the sacrifices made during the prior crisis. A second turning (e.g. the 1960s and 70s) is dominated by an awakening and reaction to the prevailing consensus. A third turning (e.g. the 1980s through 2007) is dominated by unraveling.
Strauss & Howe predicted in a 1997 book that another fourth turning crisis period would be coming soon. The latest book suggests that the fourth turning started with the Bush/Obama financial crisis in 2008. A fourth turning takes a while, so the bloody culmination could begin any time now with a resolution most likely around 2032 to 2034.
The hypothesis behind the book is that demographic generations spanning roughly 20-25 years interact with a longer historical cycle that lasts approximately 80-100 years. Each cycle usually incorporates four demographic generations as the main actors. Frankly, I found the long historical cycles more interesting and convincing than the subjective descriptions of generations. The generations function as a kind of epicycle to keep the cycle on track, but I’m not sure whether dividing each cycle into three or five generations might not work just a well. Howe’s descriptions of generations seem to have found their greatest acceptance in the realm of marketing, and perhaps their primary purpose here is to add a little sizzle to the relatively dry historical steak.2
Howe ascribes unique characteristics to each generation, but each generation also shares traits with past generations that occupied a similar time slot in a prior cycle. A generation that grows up during the springlike era of perceived prosperity and consensus after a crisis will rebel against that consensus. Howe calls them Prophets (in this case the Baby Boomers). The next generation grows up during the uncertainty of the brewing rebellion, and Howe calls them Nomads (in this case Generation X). Howe calls the generation that grows up as society is unraveling Heroes (in this case Millennials) because they serve on the front lines of the crisis, and he calls the generation that grows up during the actual crisis Artists (in this case the Zoomers3).
Generations are created by a combination of young people reacting to parents and other authority figures, along with external forces unique to each historical period. This is especially true during the extremes of summer (when Prophets rebel) and winter (when society nearly burns down and a Hero generation like the WWII Greatest Generation steps up to save it). Howe says his version of the historical cycle is not a promise of progress toward any greater good—the cyclical pattern “contributes to long-term progress only to the extent that it keeps society alive and adaptive.” (p.159)
The succession of generational types drives the cycle, but generations and turnings do not proceed in lockstep. Generations differ in length, averaging about 22 years. A turning typically begins about four years after the extant generations reach a new phase of life. Howe has Gen Xers becoming elders in 2029, Millennials becoming middle aged in 2026, and Zoomers becoming young adults in 2027. Putting all this together suggests a potential end date for the current crisis era around 2032 or so. (p.249)
A fourth turning has subphases. Often there is a “precursor” during the third turning. In our case that was September 11, 2001. The fourth turning officially begins with a “catalyst,” in our case the 2008 financial crisis. Howe calls attempts by members of society to coalesce during the crisis “regeneracies.” “Once catalyzed, a society experiences at least one regeneracy (there is usually more than one)—which reunifies community and re-energizes civic life.” (p.188)
Antagonistic groups are usually vying for power during a regeneracy. If no faction is able to dominate, then society may go through additional cycles of realignment before the culmination of the crisis. After a possible false start or two, a final configuration will be established. American society will then go through a consolidation, a climax, and a resolution that “separates winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order.” (p. 188-89)
Events influence the progress toward consolidation, especially if uniting against a common enemy becomes a necessity. The climax may involve a foreign enemy as in World War II, or factions facing off internally as in the American Civil War. Convincing you that America is on the brink of such a conflict is the main point of The Fourth Turning Is Here.
Unlike many books written to vindicate a strong central thesis, The Fourth Turning Is Here does not run out of steam after the first few chapters. The cycle theory has been on Howe’s mind for more than thirty years and it shows. Specialist historians would undoubtedly argue with many of Howe’s high-level conclusions because of course they would, but Howe’s deployment of historicism is, at the least, interesting and entertaining for a non-specialist. The book is very readable, and for those reading lightly I assume it is possible to enjoy the stream of historical anecdotes while adopting the method of Linus VanPelt reading the Brothers Karamozov.
Because I was planning to write a review when I bought the book, I attempted to read it more thoughtfully. I found plenty to engage with. Whether or not you find all of Howe’s assertions persuasive, The Fourth Turning Is Here contains some bracing thoughts about what is likely to happen in the next ten or twenty years. Those who plan to live through the next twenty years might want to read it. Those who plan to be old and vulnerable within the next twenty years might benefit even more. I count myself among the latter, having been born near the Boomer/Generation X cusp.
Subsequent posts will describe some reactions to The Fourth Turning Is Here and attempt to put the book in context. To me, the most interesting point will be the evidence that Howe has influenced the thinking of top policy-makers in the U.S. All that and more, coming up.
Howe calls each cycle a “saeculum.” Read the book to find out why. Since the term is not meaningful without explanation, I do not use it here.
The directive to sell the sizzle instead of the steak is attributed to Elmer Wheeler.
Howe calls the generation currently coming of age, commonly known as Generation Z or Zoomers, the “Homelanders.” I reject this term for reasons that will become apparent in a subsequent post. I recognize that neither I nor Howe will likely have the final say.