Thank you for a well thought out review of Turchin's End Times.
I did want to point out a couple of areas which I think you may have missed the center of target.
1) Elite overproduction - your commentary seems focused on the production part, but overproduction is only an issue when production is above available positions. Studebaker's "Surplus Song Bureaucrat" is an example where the production levels of elites during the late Song dynasty did not increase, but the available positions decreased dramatically for a number of reasons including overall population decline and bureaucratic reform.
2) Elites - definition of. Your commentary focuses on wealth and degrees per the Turchin quote, but other commentary from him makes it clear that these are not the sole criteria. In particular, he writes about how having a law degree, even from a prestigious law school, does not ensure a comfortable lifestyle these days - and that the precarity of so many lawyers negatively affects the comfort even of the 20% that are "living the dream".
In both cases above, it is not difficult to see how the wealth pump - which in the United States is now ever more closely associated with government power - is a factor and very possibly the major factor.
Yes, the tech industry has created millionaires and billionaires, but the wealthiest districts in the US are around Washington DC - not Palo Alto. In terms of total wealth creation - I don't think anyone can really dispute that the expansion of government, at all levels, is the greatest wealth creator these days judging from the ever increasing size of the government work force as a percentage of the total labor force, the ever increasing Federal budget (and deficit), sizes of government contracts, pay of government workers particularly at the top and the consultants, etc etc.
There are many other factors which are in play in terms of "elite overproduction": regional vs. national/international is another major one. Prior to the internet, there were regional/local centers of excellence hence elite positions. Even a multinational would require managers in many places, all around the world. With the internet and the jump in trade, etc - you don't need remotely as many managers. The same can be said for professionals of all kinds outside of services like health care.
Thank you for a well thought out review of Turchin's End Times.
I did want to point out a couple of areas which I think you may have missed the center of target.
1) Elite overproduction - your commentary seems focused on the production part, but overproduction is only an issue when production is above available positions. Studebaker's "Surplus Song Bureaucrat" is an example where the production levels of elites during the late Song dynasty did not increase, but the available positions decreased dramatically for a number of reasons including overall population decline and bureaucratic reform.
2) Elites - definition of. Your commentary focuses on wealth and degrees per the Turchin quote, but other commentary from him makes it clear that these are not the sole criteria. In particular, he writes about how having a law degree, even from a prestigious law school, does not ensure a comfortable lifestyle these days - and that the precarity of so many lawyers negatively affects the comfort even of the 20% that are "living the dream".
In both cases above, it is not difficult to see how the wealth pump - which in the United States is now ever more closely associated with government power - is a factor and very possibly the major factor.
Yes, the tech industry has created millionaires and billionaires, but the wealthiest districts in the US are around Washington DC - not Palo Alto. In terms of total wealth creation - I don't think anyone can really dispute that the expansion of government, at all levels, is the greatest wealth creator these days judging from the ever increasing size of the government work force as a percentage of the total labor force, the ever increasing Federal budget (and deficit), sizes of government contracts, pay of government workers particularly at the top and the consultants, etc etc.
There are many other factors which are in play in terms of "elite overproduction": regional vs. national/international is another major one. Prior to the internet, there were regional/local centers of excellence hence elite positions. Even a multinational would require managers in many places, all around the world. With the internet and the jump in trade, etc - you don't need remotely as many managers. The same can be said for professionals of all kinds outside of services like health care.